Thursday 2 October 2014

'KEKURANGAN Risikan' Serangan udara Amerika Syarikat di Syria, IRAQ boleh Menyebabkan KORBAN AWAM TINGGI . . .

Pembentukan Tentera Laut Amerika Syarikat F-18E Super Hornets meninggalkan selepas menerima bahan api dari KC-135 Stratotanker lebih utara Iraq pada September 23, 2014 (A formation of U.S. Navy F-18E Super Hornets leaves after receiving fuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker over northern Iraq on September 23, 2014 (Reuters/Shawn Nickel/U.S. Air Force)

WANmahani Risiko kematian orang awam daripada bom digugurkan di Syria & Iraq boleh menjadi lebih tinggi daripada serangan drone di Pakistan & Yaman, menurut pegawai2 Amerika Syarikat. Ini adalah kerana kekurangan kepintaran di atas tanah dan perubahan dalam dasar pengeboman.

Tentera Amerika Syarikat telah mengakui bahawa ia adalah bergantung kepada imej satelit, pesawat dan penerbangan pengawasan untuk cuba mendapatkan gambaran yang lebih baik daripada apa yang berlaku di atas tanah ‘on the ground’. Ia mempunyai sangat sedikit sumber yang boleh dipercayai atas alasan yang boleh gunakan untuk mendapatkan terkini dan maklumat yang tepat. Data yang diperolehi daripada udara juga digunakan untuk menentukan sasaran serangan udara di mana mungkin boleh dilakukan.

"Saya fikir ia mungkin bahawa serangan udara tidak dapat tidak akan menye-babkan beberapa korban awam," kata Jennifer Cafarella, yg merupakan seorang penganalisis Syria atas dgn Institut Pengajian Perang di Washington, menurut AP.

Di Iraq, gabungan Amerika Syarikat mempunyai beberapa laporan daripada tentera Iraq; namun mereka mempunyai idea sedikit tentang apa yang berlaku di kawasan2 yang dikuasai oleh Negara Islam (IS). Di Syria, tidak ada kerjasama dengan kerajaan atau pemberontak sederhana ‘moderate rebel forces’ tentera Bashar Assad, yang Amerika Syarikat sedang membuat terhadap Presiden Syria.

"Kami mengambil sikap berhati-hati yang melampau dan mengambil berat dalam menjalankan misi-misi ini," Laksamana John Kirby, setiausaha akhbar Pentagon, kepada pemberita pada hari Selasa. "Tetapi ada risiko dalam mana-mana operasi ketenteraan. Ada sejenis khas risiko apabila anda melakukan operasi udara."

Walau bagaimanapun, maklumat yang diperolehi oleh Amerika Syarikat tidak selalunya tepat. Penduduk tempatan telah menyatakan bahawa Amerika Syarikat serangan udara sering melanda bangunan kosong yang IS telah terbengkalai. Taktik kumpulan militan sejak pengeboman itu bermula telah ke berbaur dengan penduduk tempatan dan bergerak jauh daripada bangunan berskala besar dan kem-kem, yang akan menjadi sasaran mudah untuk kempen udara.

"Ia jauh lebih sukar untuk kita dapat mengetahui dengan pasti apa yang kita memukul, apa yang kita membunuh dan apa yang ia adalah kerosakan cagaran," kata Tom Lynch, kolonel dan bekas penasihat bersara kepada Ketua Turus Turus, yang dilaporkan oleh AP.

Kumpulan hak asasi manusia telah pun dinyatakan bahawa sebanyak dua belas orang awam terbunuh setakat ini dengan serangan udara dari pakatan yang diketuai Amerika Syarikat. Sekurang-kurangnya 19 terbunuh dalam lewat Sep-tember, apabila serangan udara Amerika Syarikat melanda bijirin silo ‘grain silos’ di Syria, menurut Balai Cerap Syria bagi Hak Asasi Manusia, sebuah organisasi yang Cafarella dianggap boleh dipercayai.

Pergantungan BN kepada kuasa udara tidak kelihatan seolah-olah ia akan berhenti bila2 masa tdk lama lagi, kata Jeff Mejar Jeneral Harrigian, pembantu timbalan Tentera Udara ketua kakitangan untuk operasi, rancangan dan keperluan. Beliau mengekalkan serangan udara semasa adalah sebahagian daripada kempen "ber-terusan dan berkekalan" terhadap kumpulan militan, walaupun dia mengakui IS adalah, "satu musuh pintar."

"Tindakan kuasa Udara sasaran mengganggu perintah dan kawalan Isil ini, logistik & infrastruktur mereka, & kebebasan bergerak," Harrigian dipetik sebagai berkata di Jabatan Negara Amerika Syarikat laman web Pertahanan ini. "Kami melihat kuasa udara sebagai salah satu komponen asas dalam strategi menyeluruh.”

‘Lack of intelligence’: US airstrikes in Syria, Iraq could lead to high civilian casualties

The risk of civilian deaths from bombs dropped in Syria and Iraq could be much higher than drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen, according to US officials. This is due to a lack of intelligence on the ground and a change in bombing policy.

The US military has admitted that it is reliant on satellite images, drones and surveillance flights to try and get a better picture of what is happening on the ground. It has very few reliable sources on the ground which it can use to get up to date and precise information. The data gained from the air is also used to pinpoint possible targets where airstrikes can be carried out.

"I think it is likely that airstrikes will inevitably result in some civilian casualties," said Jennifer Cafarella, who is a top Syrian analyst with the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, according to AP.

In Iraq, the US coalition does have some reports from the Iraqi military; however they have little idea about what is happening in areas controlled by Islamic State (IS). In Syria, there is no cooperation with Bashar Assads government or moderate rebel forces, which the US is backing against the Syrian president.

"We do take extreme caution and care in the conduct of these missions," Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon's press secretary, told reporters on Tuesday. "But there's risk in any military operation. There's a special kind of risk when you do air operations."

However, the information obtained by the US is not always accurate. Locals have stated that US airstrikes have often hit empty buildings which the IS has abandoned. The militant group’s tactics since the bombardment started have been to blend in with the local populations and move away from large-scale buildings and camps, which would be easy targets for air campaigns.

"It's much harder for us to be able to know for sure what it is we're hitting, what it is we're killing and what it is collateral damage," said Tom Lynch, a retired colonel and former adviser to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which was reported by AP.

Human rights groups have already stated that as many as two dozen civilians have been killed so far by airstrikes from the US-led coalition. At least 19 were killed in late September, when US airstrikes hit grain silos in Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an organization which Cafarella regards as reliable.

The coalition’s reliance on air power does not seem as though it will stop any time soon, says Major General Jeff Harrigian, the Air Force’s assistant deputy of chief of staff for operations, plans and requirements. He maintains the current airstrikes are part of a “persistent and sustained” campaign against the militant group, even though he does admit IS are, “a smart adversary.”

“Air power’s targeted actions are disrupting ISIL’s command and control, their logistics and infrastructure, and their freedom of movement,” Harrigian was quoted as saying on the US Department of Defense’s website. “We see air power as one of the fundamental components of the comprehensive strategy.”

Imej Angkatan Udara Amerika Syarikat Central Command dari video menunjukkan Tentera Udara Amerika Syarikat B-1B Lancer selepas mengisi minyak di kawasan Perintah Pusat Amerika Syarikat tanggungjawab sebelum menyerang operasi di Syria pada September 27, 2014 (This US Air Forces Central Command image from video shows US Air Force B-1B Lancer after refueling in the US Central Command area of responsibility prior to strike operations in Syria on September 27, 2014 (AFP Photo/US Air Forces Central Command)

PERUBAHAN Dasar DALAM

Kempen Pakatan yang diketuai di Syria dan Iraq telah menyaksikan sebuah anjakan daripada menyasarkan peraturan yang dikenakan bagi serangan drone di Pakistan di Yemen.

Pada bulan Mei 2013, pada 1 ucapan ‘speech’ di Universiti Pertahanan Kebang-saan di Washington, Presiden Barack Obama mengakui bahawa pentadbiran beliau bertanggungjawab untuk membunuh tidak kurang daripada empat rakyat Amerika Syarikat dengan serangan-serangan ini, dan berpotensi beribu-ribu orang awam, melalui penggunaan pesawat. Ini membawa kepada drastik berfikir semula yang mengawal bagaimana serangan berdengung masa depan akan dilakukan.

Peraturan baru ini menyatakan bahawa tiada mogok berdengung akan berlaku tanpa "kepastian berhampiran" yang orang awam tidak akan dicederakan.

Sebelum undang-undang itu diperkenalkan, menurut Biro Kewartawanan Siasatan laman web, 339 mogok berdengung telah berlaku di Pakistan sejak Obama mula berkuasa, yang membawa kepada hampir 4,000 kematian, di mana kira-kira satu perempat telah orang awam ‘civilians’.

Bagaimanapun kumpulan itu berkata, mereka telah mendapati tiada bukti mangsa awam di negara ini sejak dasar baru telah diterima pakai. Perang Long Journal juga melaporkan bahawa terdapat hanya sembilan mogok tahun ini, berbanding 110 pada tahun 2010.

Walau bagaimanapun, menurut jurucakap White House Caitlin Hayden, peraturan ini bertujuan untuk digunakan "hanya apabila kita mengambil tindakan langsung di luar permusuhan aktif."

Gambar telah berubah dgn ketara di Syria & Iraq, dengan Hayden mengatakan ini adalah konflik bersenjata. Beliau menyebut bahawa penargetan dijalankan di bawah kaedah-kaedah undang2, yang walaupun ia memerlukan tentera untuk mengambil amaran untuk mengelakkan korban awam, ia tidak memegang mereka 'berhampiran kepastian' standard yang dikenakan oleh Obama.

Change in policy

The US-led coalition’s campaign in Syria and Iraq has seen a shift away from targeting rules which were imposed for drone strikes in Pakistan in Yemen.

In May 2013, at a speech at the National Defense University in Washington, President Barack Obama acknowledged that his administration was responsible for killing no fewer than four US citizens with these attacks, and potentially thousands of civilians, through the use of drones. This led to a drastic re-think governing how future drone attacks would be carried out.

The new rules stated that no drone strike would occur without a "near certainty" that civilians would not be harmed.

Before the legislation was introduced, according to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism website, 339 drone strikes have taken place in Pakistan since Obama came to power, which led to almost 4,000 deaths, of which around one-quarter have been civilians.

However the group said they have found no evidence of civilian casualties in the country since the new policy was adopted. The Long War Journal also reported that there have been only nine strikes this year, in comparison to 110 in 2010.

However, according to White House spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden, this rule is intended to be applied “only when we take direct action outside of active hostilities.”

The picture has changed significantly in Syria and Iraq, with Hayden saying this is an armed conflict. She mentioned that targeting is undertaken under the rules of law, which although it does require military’s to take cautions to avoid civilian casualties, it does not hold them to the ‘near certainty’ standard that was imposed by Obama.


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